Putin's Pyongyang visit factors Northeast Asia into diplomatic equation

Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un examine a launch pad of Soyuz rockets during their meeting at the Vostochny Cosmodrome outside the city of Tsiolkovsky in Russia, Sept. 13, 2023. AP-Yonhap

Rhetorical commitment to stronger ties anticipated in Kim-Putin meetingBy Nam Hyun-woo

Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit North Korea within a few days, in an apparent reciprocal gesture to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s trip to Russia’s Far East last November.

The visit, confirmed by an official at the South Korean presidential office, seems to be Moscow's response to Pyongyang's desire to showcase the close relations between the two sides to the world. This is expected to complicate the diplomatic equations involving the two Koreas, Russia, and China. Experts suggest that the level of cooperation achieved during Putin's upcoming visit will shape the geopolitical dynamics of Northeast Asia in the near future.

North Korea's Minister of Foreign Affairs Choe Son-hui, left, and Russia's Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov are seen before talks at the Reception House of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in this Jan. 16 photo. TASS-Yonhap

During a press briefing, Thursday, a South Korean presidential official said the Russian president is expected to visit North Korea “in a few days,” confirming a series of foreign media reports on the purported visit citing preparation works for large-scale ceremonies in Pyongyang.

If realized, it would be Putin’s first trip to Pyongyang in 24 years. The Kremlin said earlier that Putin had accepted Kim’s invitation to visit North Korea during their previous meeting in Russia’s Vostochny Cosmodrome space launch center, where the Russian leader promised to help the North build military satellites.

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During the planned visit, Putin and Kim are expected to review the exchanges between their two sides since their last meeting and discuss ways to further enhance their bilateral relations.

Attracting international attention is the level of agreements the two sides will sign in strategic areas, which may encompass the revival or signing of treaties that define their military relations.

In 1961, the Soviet Union and North Korea signed an alliance treaty on mutual friendship, cooperation and assistance, which included a clause on automatic military intervention in the event of an armed invasion or war. However, this was abolished in 1996.

In 2000, Russia and the North signed the Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, Good Neighborliness, but it did not stipulate a military alliance between the two sides. Although it is called a treaty, South Korea considers it as a joint declaration, in which the two sides’ commitments are less binding compared to those stipulated in a formal treaty.

Russain President Vladimir Putin toasts with then-North Korean leader Kim Jong-il during a visit to Pyongyang in July 2000. Korea Times file

However, the South Korean government and experts predict that the upcoming Kim-Putin meeting will not likely feature a surprise treaty or other official document that stipulates their strong relations. Instead, it is expected to conclude with a joint press announcement, where both sides rhetorically commit to enhancing their relations without formal binding agreements.

“In my opinion, the most ambitious outcome will be a joint declaration between Pyongyang and Moscow, with the more likely outcome being a joint press announcement from both sides,” said Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies.

Yang said the two sides are expected to avoid detailed discussions on their military cooperation, mindful of Russia's relationships with China and South Korea.

“There have long been invisible rules between Beijing and Moscow, where Russia respects many of China’s perspectives on Asia-related policies,” Yang said.

“China respects Russia's perspectives in terms of European affairs. If Russia excessively draws close to the North — by transferring Moscow’s advanced weapons technologies to Pyongyang — this puts relations between Russia and China in an awkward position. China may interpret excessive ties between Russia and the North as a sign that its influence on Pyongyang is weakening.”

President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a meeting in Beijing, May 16. Reuters-Yonhap

Against this backdrop, South Korea and China plan to hold a vice-ministerial-level bilateral diplomatic and security dialogue in Seoul next week. Given China's cautious stance on North Korea-Russia military relations and the timing of Putin's visit to North Korea, Seoul and Beijing may find common ground in their views regarding Moscow-Pyongyang military relations.

The state of relations between South Korea and Russia is another factor leading experts to speculate that Putin's visit will likely focus on symbolic gestures and grandstanding.

Following Russia’s military cooperation with North Korea and South Korea’s indirect support for Ukraine, Seoul-Moscow relations have soured. However, both countries still believe they have not crossed their respective "red lines."

For Seoul, this includes Russia's direct support of North Korea's nuclear and submarine programs, while for Moscow, it concerns Seoul's direct provision of arms to Ukraine that could potentially target Russia.

Against that backdrop, Putin and Russian Ambassador to South Korea Georgy Zinoviev recently conveyed friendly messages to South Korea. Earlier this month, Putin said in a meeting with news agencies that “we do not see any Russophobic stance when working with the South Korean government” and “neither are there any weapons supplies to the conflict zone.”

“As the two countries are not crossing the red lines, Seoul-Moscow ties are not worsening,” Yang said.

“If Putin visits Pyongyang and proclaims strong military ties with the North against this backdrop, it will do more harm than good. We may not have insight into the details of the Putin-Kim talks, but it's unlikely there will be groundbreaking cooperation between the two sides. Russia has too much at stake.”