North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visits the National Aerospace Technology Administration's control center in Pyongyang, Wednesday, in this photo released the day after by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. North Korea declared the end to an inter-Korean military agreement, Thursday, saying it will deploy more troops and new weapons along the border with South Korea. Yonhap

With buffer removed, risk of dangerous miscalculation is now greater: analystsBy Jung Min-ho

Pyongyang declared the end to an inter-Korean military agreement on Thursday, saying it will deploy more troops and new weapons along its border with South Korea.

The abrogation of the accord, signed in 2018 to curb the risk of inadvertent clashes, comes a day after Seoul's decision to partially suspend it to resume reconnaissance operations near the border in response to North Korea’s sanction-busting launch of a spy satellite.

“From now on, our military will no longer be bound by the Sept. 19 military agreement,” the North’s defense ministry said in a statement. “We will withdraw the military steps, taken to prevent military tensions and possible clashes in all spheres including land, sea and air, and deploy more powerful armed forces and new types of military hardware to the regions close to the Military Demarcation Line.”

By carrying out artillery drills near the border or sending drones deep into South Korea, the North violated the agreement repeatedly — nearly 3,600 times, according to South Korean military officials. Yet its defense ministry fixed the blame on Seoul.

“Because of the Republic of Korea’s provocative behavior, the Sept. 19 military agreement had become virtually nullified a long time ago,” the ministry claimed. “If an irreversible clash occurs between the North and the South, it will be the responsibility of those in the Republic of Korea.”

Several hours before releasing the statement, the North Korean military launched a ballistic missile “unsuccessfully,” according South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff.

NK likely to restore guard posts at DMZ after ditching military agreement 2023-11-23 16:26  |  North Korea

This may be a prelude to more such provocations to come, according to analysts contacted by The Korea Times. The regime would try to avoid unnecessary, costly clashes with South Korea. But the greatest danger lies in miscalculation, they said. With the buffer removed, they believe the risk of dangerous miscalculation ― and armed conflict ― is now greater.

“North Korea’s possible next move is to rebuild its 10 frontline guard posts it blew up in the wake of the agreement and refill them with military forces possibly equipped with more and better weapons,” said Cho Han-bum, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a state-funded think tank. “This would force our military to react, resulting in a greater risk of accidental clashes and escalations that could run out of control.”

Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies, also thinks such scenario is very likely.

“To show that their revocation of the agreement is not just empty words, it is expected that North Korea would demonstrate its force by violating the maritime border (Northern Limit Line, or NLL), deploying coastal artillery, firing shots at leaflets and launching missiles of various types,” he said.

Defense Minister Shin Won-sik speaks during a defense committee meeting at the National Assembly in Seoul, Thursday. Yonhap

Speaking to members of the National Assembly Defense Committee meeting the same day, Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said such provocations would be met with a strong response by the joint military forces of South Korea and the U.S.

Reiterating the ministry’s position that suspending the agreement was a necessary measure for self-defense, Shin said it was North Korea, not the South, that de facto nullified the deal with its repeated violations.

He also said North Korea’s launch of a satellite using ballistic missile technology is a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions and poses a grave threat to South Korea and beyond.

North Korea’s state media claims the launch of a reconnaissance satellite was successful and it was able to take photos of a U.S. air force base on Guam.

South Korea's National Intelligence Service said it was probably bluffing, according to Rep. Youn Kun-young of the Democratic Party of Korea. Although its satellite successfully entered orbit, analysis suggests that it is functioning inadequately as a reconnaissance satellite, the spy agency said.

Intelligence officials also said they confirmed Russian support for the North Korean space project, and expect their collaboration to continue as Pyongyang is preparing to launch more satellites for military purposes in the coming years.