This Feb. 27, 2019, file photo shows a man walking near a bridge which spans the Amnok River between China and North Korea, in Dandong, China. A North Korean defector-turned-activist said in a recent interview that revolutionary change for North Korea is possible if South Korea convinces China to stop deporting North Korean escapees. AFP-Yonhap

Ex-refugee says China worried border collapse could result in end of Kim regimeBy Jung Min-ho

China’s policy of forcibly deporting North Korean escapees is a brutal one for such freedom-seekers. What is lesser known is that it is also a costly one for political leaders in Beijing.

As a signatory to the U.N. Refugee Convention and other international treaties, the Chinese government isn’t pleased to see its global reputation become marred by the policy it maintains largely for Pyongyang’s interest. The repatriation of North Korean escapees, mostly women, also causes agony for China’s own citizens as it could mean the tragic separation of families as many wives and mothers are sent back to political prison camps, or worse, in North Korea.

Beijing bears these political and diplomatic burdens because it knows the risk of stopping it, according to Kang Chol-hwan, a North Korean defector-turned-activist.

“China knows that an exodus of North Korean refugees would be massive and unstoppable once they realize China is safe to go to,” Kang, president of the North Korea Strategy Center, a Seoul-based NGO, said in a recent interview with The Korea Times. “Border guards would be among the first to flee. That means the collapse of the border and the beginning of the end of the Kim Jong-un regime … Many know that something is deeply wrong with their country, but they don’t escape due to their fears of deportation and death.”

Beijing came under international criticism in October after repatriating hundreds of North Koreans who had been detained in China over the past three years of extreme pandemic isolation. Human rights activists urged officials in Seoul to be more proactive in resolving the issue, but little has been done so far other than the promise of more diplomatic efforts.

Preoccupied with its national security priorities such as North Korea’s nuclear threats, South Korea has a tendency of treating human rights issues like the Chinese deportation policy as less important matters. But Kang thinks placing a greater focus on resolving such issues could bring a more profound change to North Korea than the decades of failed efforts to denuclearize it with sanctions targeting its nuclear weapons.

Kang Chol-hwan, left, a North Korean defector-turned-activist, poses with Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho during an event held to honor human rights activists for their contribution, at the Office of the Inter-Korean Dialogue in Seoul, Sept. 13. Courtesy of Kang Chol-hwan

According to experts, one of China’s greatest fears regarding North Korea is its instability, as evidenced by reports about its project of building refugee camps near the border. Kang said convincing Beijing to give up its deportation policy is not impossible if South Korea shows its will to alleviate concerns.

“One thing South Korea could do is to promise, possibly through an official treaty, to take all North Korean refugees,” he said. “Another possible move could be to give its formal support for North Korea to adopt Chinese-style reforms. I don’t see any reasons China would not like it.”

All such moves would take careful diplomatic efforts and coordination with not just Beijing but also Washington and other governments. But Kang said it is important for South Korean officials to keep in mind that China’s national interest has been ― and always will be ― very different from North Korea’s and they should aim at making the most of that difference when developing strategies.

After the execution of Jang Song Thaek, the current North Korean dictator’s uncle known for his pro-China and pro-market stance, the diplomatic relationship between the two countries has gone through ups and downs. North Korea’s three nuclear tests between 2016 and 2017 prompted China to vote in the U.N. Security Council sanctions against Pyongyang.

“I think North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons began with its distrust of China. If it offers a nuclear umbrella as the U.S. does for South Korea, why would North Korea need its own nuclear weapons?” Kang said. “If South Korea sincerely shows its will and good reasons for China to shift its deportation policy, I think it’s not an impossible goal and the aftereffect would be consequential.”