Confirmation bias on North Korea's denuclearization

A North Korean solider is on guard at its building inside the truce village of Panmunjom in this recent photo. / Yonhap

By Oh Young-jin

Just days before the April 27 inter-Korean summit, the atmosphere is one of optimism.

If the past two summits serve as any guide, they are a cautionary tale, advising us not to be overly expecting.

Expectation over the stated goal of South Korea and the United States ― North Korea's willingness to separate itself from its nuclear programs or the so-called denuclearization ― is far from reality.

The North has never committed itself to it.

The South and the usually less emotional U.S. appear to have a case of confirmation bias ― seeing only what they want to see and what they want to hear. President Moon Jae-in positively believed that the North's denuclearization was doable, while U.S. President Donald Trump was no less positive.

But one North Korea observer called this collective wishful thinking on the part of the Moon government and the media "dyslexia." "It is as if people do not comprehend what North Korea's Kim Jong-un is saying in plain Korean."

The observer said on condition of anonymity that Kim's intentions were contained in a statement issued by the North after the end of the plenary meeting of the North Korean Worker's Party Central Committee last week.

The part in question reads, "We have achieved a victory in our 'byeongjin' policy of pursuing nuclear and economic development. Our people's belt-tightening effort to gain the strong treasured sword for the preservation of peace has been brought to a stellar conclusion.

"The firm collateral for our posterity to enjoy the most respectable and happy life has been attained," it quoted Kim as saying in the meeting.

This part requires rhetorical nitpicking with an insider's help from the observer, one of the highest-ranking North Korean defectors to the South.

He first called attention to the emphasis of success of the dual pursuit policy in the paragraph. "It is an expression of confidence about maintaining its newly gained advantage ― nuclear weapons," he said.

If there is any doubt, the next sentence is dismissive of it, as it dubbed its nuclear weapons a treasured sword with peacekeeping being its purpose.

"If you depart from being the peacekeeper, what would it make you ― a peace destroyer?" he said.

Then, the last sentence explains the primary reason for Kim not being able to give up nuclear weapons.

"Kim said that the nuclear weapons were for the wellbeing of posterity," he said. "This means that Kim will stick to the nuclear weapons, which he sees as a sure way to continue his dynasty far beyond him," he said.

Then, there was a more clear show of the North's intention in bullet points toward the end of the statement.

The first point stresses the "credible realization" of nuclear weaponization through warhead miniaturization and development of "supersized" nuclear devices and delivery systems, which the North "solemnly declares."

Point Three states that its moratorium on nuclear tests was part of the international nuclear arms reduction process. "The North is showing its willingness to join the Comprehensive Test Nuclear Ban Treaty (CTB)," the observer said, referring to the 1996 treaty that was not signed by China and signed but not ratified by the U.S.

"Then, note Point Four where the North says that it won't transfer nuclear materials and technology or won't use nuclear weapons unless attacked in kind," he said. "It is a non-proliferation commitment that is only possible from a nation that is intending to keep its nuclear weapons."